A comprehensive analytical approach for analysis of system dynamics models
By Rogelio Oliva, M. Saleh, C.E. Kampmann, P.I. Davidsen
In Press
European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. , # , pp.
Abstract
Formal tools to link system dynamics model's structure to the system modes of behavior have become available recently. In this paper, we aim to expand the use of these tools to perform the model's policy analysis in a more structured and formal way than the exhaustive exploratory approaches used to date. We consider how a policy intervention (a parameter change) affects a particular behavior mode by affecting the gains of particular feedback loops as well as how it affects the presence of that mode in the variable of interest. The paper demonstrates the utility of considering both of these aspects since the analysis provides an assessment of the overall impact of a policy on a variable and explains why the impact occurs in terms of structural changes in the model. Particularly in the context of larger models, this method enables a much more efficient search for leverage policies, by ranking the influence of each model parameter without the need for multiple simulation experiments.Formal tools to link system dynamics model's structure to the system modes of behavior have become available recently. In this paper, we aim to expand the use of these tools to perform the model's policy analysis in a more structured and formal way than the exhaustive exploratory approaches used to date. We consider how a policy intervention (a parameter change) affects a particular behavior mode by affecting the gains of particular feedback loops as well as how it affects the presence of that mode in the variable of interest. The paper demonstrates the utility of considering both of these aspects since the analysis provides an assessment of the overall impact of a policy on a variable and explains why the impact occurs in terms of structural changes in the model. Particularly in the context of larger models, this method enables a much more efficient search for leverage policies, by ranking the influence of each model parameter without the need for multiple simulation experiments.
Keywords
Eigenvalue Analysis, Leverage Points, Linear Model Analysis, System Dynamics
http://iops.tamu.edu/faculty/roliva/research/sd/bdw/
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